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Despite finishing with an 11-point gap between themselves and second-placed rivals
Manchester City, while the goal difference itself—43, the highest in the league—makes for comforting reading,
Manchester United and
David Moyes will be well aware that was mostly down to the forwards.
Naturally,
having Robin van Persie is a blessing for any manager, and the fact
that the Dutchman scored over a quarter of his side’s league goals is
not as worrying as it may seem—take away his 26, and United still have
the seventh-highest tally in the Premier League. But at the other end of
the field, in several different ways, the situation is not so ideal.
Moyes has already begun to address the back four with his
recent signing of Guillermo Varela
as understudy to the ever-improving Rafael, but is it enough, or will
there be more bolstering work done over the next couple of months?
Rafael
is basking in the warm afterglow of his best season to date, which saw
him notch three goals and four assists in the league,
the highlight being a brilliantly struck shot from outside the area against
Queens Park Rangers.
The low point unfortunately came in what turned out to be his final
game of the season, when a loss of temper brought about an unnecessary
kick on
Chelsea’s David Luiz with a resulting red card.
Rafael has come on brilliantly as a player over the last 10 months, but still has some improving left to do.
Ian Walton/Getty Images
However, while the young Brazilian is far better
defensively than he was two or three seasons ago, there are some
underlying stats that will cause his manager some concern.
Out of 28 league starts in 2012-13 for Rafael, United conceded at least two goals nine times; in the 10 games he didn’t play there were only two in which they conceded twice or more, one of which was the end-of-season 5-5 thriller against West Bromwich Albion when United had already secured the title.
It's
obvious from the signing of Varela that Moyes does not see Phil Jones
or Chris Smalling as suitable deputies at right-back, but, with a bare
minimum of playing experience behind him, no matter how many plaudits
fly in, the Uruguayan youngster is not yet the answer.
While
Rafael has shown that he can play 40 games a season, if not more, United
can’t account for injury, and if the 22-year-old were laid off for a
few weeks they would need a capable understudy to call on. Jones and
Smalling have both shown their adeptness at right-back, but Jones is
viewed by many (including himself) as destined to sit at the heart of
the defence, while Smalling has proved somewhat injury-prone.
This
is where the experience of Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic come into
play, with the defenders aged 34 and 31 years old respectively.
If,
as expected, Varela is sent out on loan next season, then Jones or
Smalling will be forced to deputise in the event of Rafael getting
injured, as Marnick Vermijl is looking increasingly like a fringe player
who will be moved on sooner rather than later.
Obviously there is
the benefit of making the young Englishmen into more versatile players,
but if Jones, as thought, is to end up at centre-back, then surely both
he and Ferdinand are at the ages where one should be slowly replacing
the other?
Although he is clearly a multi-talented player, Jones wants to
establish himself at centre-back and must push himself to do so.
Jamie McDonald/Getty Images
It’s all very well having a good repertoire of
positions, but Jones should be careful that he doesn’t fall victim to
the “jack of all, master of none” syndrome. Despite Jones being the
better player, Jonny Evans currently looks the most likely to partner
Vidic once Ferdinand’s late rush of form withers or his age catches up,
for the simple reason that Evans has more experience in the role and
performed solidly throughout the season while Jones was busy being
switched between defence and midfield.
So when Ferdinand retires
in the next year or so, even if Evans becomes the first-choice
centre-back alongside Vidic, there is still the inevitable drop in form
and ability that will strike the Serbian over the course of the next two
or three seasons to worry about. Smalling’s regular injury problems are
why it’s important to focus on preparing Jones for a career at
centre-back as thoroughly as possible, before it’s too late.
In
that respect, the signing of Varela is a good move, but if he goes out
on loan—unless there is someone else on the horizon—Moyes will be very
reliant on Rafael and risk stunting the development of Jones as a
centre-back if the Brazilian gets injured.
But what about the
left side of defence, which has been dominated by Patrice Evra for the
past six years but is now in uncertainty as the French international
reached the age of 32 last month?
Firstly, although he is returning from a season loan at QPR, Fabio will be very fortunate to make next season’s squad.
The
twin brother of Rafael did make 21 league appearances last season, but
the manner in which he made them is not quite so encouraging, and his
performances even less so. After starting the first three games of the
season under Mark Hughes—which saw QPR concede nine goals—he picked up a
hamstring injury during the fourth, and on his return he couldn’t
really establish himself under Harry Redknapp, with seven of his
remaining 16 appearances under the new manager coming from the bench.
Back
in Manchester, it is hard to tell if Alexander Buttner looks more
promising, though on what we’ve seen he does appear to be a more rounded
player than Fabio.
Buttner is mobbed after his debut goal but hasn't hit such heights since.
Alex Livesey/Getty Images
The 24-year-old made a sublime start to his Manchester United career, with a decent performance topped off by a scintillating goal during his debut match against Wigan, though he didn’t
really build on that, making only 13 first-team appearances in 2012-13.
Granted, Patrice Evra's form was unquestionably good last season, and Buttner's two goals in five league games is an excellent ratio for a defender, but don’t expect it to become a regular occurrence.
However, if Buttner’s
strength is going forward, then his weakness is definitely his
defensive positioning, which was often put to the question, especially
in—albeit academic—Champions League games against Galatasary and CFR Cluj.
Should David Moyes buy a left-back this summer?
In summary, if Patrice Evra had not recovered from
his dire run of form in time for last season, then United would have had
the impossible dilemma of either playing an experienced left-back who
was badly out of sorts, or an inexperienced left-back whose performances
could go either way—not the depth in talent we have come to expect from
the title-holders. That, and the 43 league goals conceded could have
been far more.
And as long as Evra keeps playing like he is,
Buttner will have his work cut out trying to showcase and develop his
talents, which could have a detrimental effect once Evra retires and
Buttner faces the prospect of having to step up as first-choice
left-back. But the idea of Moyes allowing that to happen is fairly
inconceivable, which makes the signing of Leighton Baines or another top
left-back this summer or the next seem more plausible.
Back on
the right side, Rafael has shown that he has a special quality and
should be allowed to retain his role as first-choice right-back, but
this presents a headache for the manager: He could send Varela out on
loan and risk having to call on either Jones or Smalling as deputies and
hypothetically hinder their long-term development as centre-backs.
Alternatively, he could keep Varela as the understudy, which would
naturally deprive the 20-year-old of the regular game time he needs to
reach his full potential.
With all these issues to resolve, if
there’s one thing that Moyes doesn’t have, it’s an easy first summer at
his new club. Oh, and then there’s the simple matters of the midfield
and Wayne Rooney situations to sort out.
Good luck then, old sport, good luck.
